INSIGHTS
Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) GDP growth estimate for financial year 2024 is too optimistic, predicting that growth will slow down to 5.3 per cent, as per Nomura.
Weak global growth, high uncertainty, and the lagged effects of domestic policy tightening are the factors that could lead to a downside of over 1 percentage point to the RBI's growth estimate.
India’s GDP growth is forecast to slow down to 5.3 per cent, indicating a downward trend in the economy, according to Japanese brokerage firm Nomura. Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) GDP growth estimate of 6.5 per cent for India in financial year 2024 (FY24) is too optimistic, as per the brokerage firm.
While several agencies have already cut their growth forecasts for FY24, Nomura stated that RBI will pivot to rate cuts from October due to high uncertainty, weak global growth, and the lagged effects of domestic policy tightening, according to Indian media reports.
A downside of over 1 percentage point to the RBI's growth estimate is expected. The brokerage also agreed with the RBI's estimation of price rise, saying that the worst of headline inflation has passed.
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